Yeah. And I'm completely boxed in, there's zero way out of here

Unless people managed to place blocks or cover the openings with lava in the last 48 hours (entirely possible mind you) there are at least 4 different exists from spawn. I dug a 3x2 tunnel at y56 completely around the protection area a couple days ago, and there were plenty of openings to the actual spawn area. In the -x direction there's a tunnel to take you out past the lava and chaos to a bridge on the water.

**Edited:**

Just to be correct, isn't that all blocks from spawn to 10k (in a circle, not square).

Be aware, if you say you are pretty much exact 10k or 20k out somebody does not need

to search the whole area, just the border. Which is much much less as what you calculated.

To protect yourself against this, don't tell the exact distance but be wrong for at least 5k

What I calculated was basically picking a random block within render distance of any 10K block on either the X or Z coordinates. Not necessarily exploring a certain number of blocks. To be technically correct on percent chance of finding a base simply by walking outwards from spawn, you would have to calculate the arc length ratio of your base compared to the entire length of blocks at your distance. This would be a smaller number than what I arrived at by at least half I would think...