I don't know for sure, but I don't think the server/player counter in legacy Rust includes players playing on experimental. Regardless, you can look at the server browsers on each to find that the vast majority of people still playing Rust are playing legacy.
It's not a surprising coincidence that the player drop off started at the time experimental did -- it was a signal that the game wasn't going to be updated in quite a while. If not for the modding community, the drop off would have likely been faster with fewer players left over.
The rewrite was understandable. FP didn't want to continue working on a code base that limited their ability to deliver new features.
I am fairly confident that when 'new' Rust is as playable as legacy, people will come back. Heck, Elix might even decide to play it for the first time since it came out steam.
yeah, i'm pretty sure the screeny was from the in-game server list, so it will only be legacy:)
i guess my point is that player number statistics are not definitive proof that experimental development killed legacy. a few other possible answers;
hackers/glitchers were (and are) rife and the official servers lost moderation.
fp stated that they will not be updating legacy. starting from scratch is not as playable.
hype dies eventually, and there was a crapload of hype about rust; markiplier playing rust on youtube is why i first tried it out.
legacy has a hard learning curve; it is very easy to die, and even easier to be killed by the kev crews dominating the rad/res areas on a semi populated server.
i acknowledge that experimental has some role in the decline of players, but i denounce the idea that it is the silver bullet.
personally i play both still. legacy is nostalgic, and a hell of a lot of fun. but i also regularly check back on experimental because end game in legacy is too easy to acheive. once you have kev, m4 and have researched c4/explosives, that's pretty much it. i get bored without stimulation, and that bores me. but i agree, people who are interested will come back as experimental becomes more and more playable.