You can try and spin the data however you want, but the reality is the numbers. How another game is doing doesn't really matter, so I don't see the point of that. I agree that it rises and falls based on patches, but even without that, it is still falling yet it continues to sell. That means fewer and fewer long term players are coming back even after patches.
I'm not saying the game is dead, nor do I want it to be, I am just stating facts. I hope they come out with a bunch of great new stuff, I'll have a blast again I'm sure.
I'm both a huge fan, and have a disdain for Early Access games. There is a game called Age of Conan that from all I heard, was horrible at release, and then they fixed it and made it awesome, but everyone had quit. That is my fear, they released this so early, so unfinished, and it's a great concept, but now it's going to die before it ever gets finished, because the newness will be gone. I say this every time we talk about Early Access on Steam, "You only get one chance to play a game for the first time". Early Access is killing that experience.
Actually I think if you look at the sales performance, it's decreased over time in comparison to the only slight decrease in active players (in the grand scheme of things, only slight decrease i should say) which reflects more players staying active after purchasing. So yes there is a slight dip right now, but I think that's reflective of the dirty code edits they have to make. Once they streamline the engine in tandem with the item editor, i feel they'll be able to crank out new content updates pretty efficiently, and we'll see an increase in average active players again. (just my speculation on the numbers, I absolutely could be wrong.)
Edited:
I kind of agree with the OP here. I know the game is in "ALPHA/BETA/GAMMA" or whatever they want to call it. The small team excuse is far overused. I see plenty of user submissions and outside help to blame a small team for slow updates. There's great games out there like Banished where it was made by 1 person. The game is fun, looks great, and didn't jump on the "early access" bandwagon. I have basically stopped playing all together for the past 3 weeks because all the game is is a hackfest. There's only so many times one can get chased off servers, ran out by hackers, or abusive admins. The lack of new content is a shame as this game has amazing potential. If I was paid the amount of money the team made from steam sales, I'd be alittle more dedicated to listening to the players and helping give what they want.
I have to respectfully disagree that, "Alpha/small team is an overused excuse." Alpha translates directly in game development to, "not finished/in development." Banished didn't jump on the early access wagon, so their game was complete upon release to the public. They were done with development on release. Rust is not complete, and they are currently customizing Unity 3d, which requires some edits to the hardcode to make the engine fit their vision better. So current updates won't be content-packed, but once the customization is further along, it'll be easier to push out more awesome updates more often. And paying $20 doesn't grant you artistic ownership over the project, we're voluntary testers, not producers ;) Yes hackers ruin the game for people, but remember that there are 11 staff members total (not all are coders, some are graphic artists/3d modelers) and potentially hundreds of people working against them to publish hacks.
And I apologize for my, "fanboy," attitude. ;)